Perceived certainty of detection is directly related to employee theft for respondents in all industry sectors, that is the stronger the perception that theft would be detected, the more the likelihood that the employee would engage in deviant behavior.

Research grounded in deterrence theory and the ACFE Fraud Examiners Manual shows an inverse (negative) relationship between the perceived certainty of detection and an employee’s willingness to commit theft. When workers believe they are likely to be caught, the probability that they will engage in deviant or fraudulent acts decreases, not increases. Therefore, the statement—which says that a stronger perception of detection increases the likelihood of deviant behavior—is the opposite of what empirical evidence demonstrates and is false. Why the Other Option (“True”) Is Wrong: Choosing “True” would endorse a positive relationship (stronger detection certainty → more theft), contradicting consistent findings across multiple industries that higher certainty of detection deters, rather than encourages, employee misconduct.

A. True: This option is incorrect because it posits a direct relationship, suggesting that increasing the chances of getting caught would encourage theft. This is contrary to established criminological theory and the practical application of internal controls and fraud prevention measures, which are designed specifically to increase the perception of detection to deter fraud.

References:
1. Association of Certified Fraud Examiners (ACFE). (2023). Fraud Examiners Manual, International Edition. Section 1, "Introduction," Subsection "Preventing Fraud": The manual explicitly states, "The second way to prevent fraud is to create a perception of detection... If potential perpetrators believe their fraudulent activities will be detected, they will be less likely to commit them." This directly supports the concept of an inverse relationship between the perception of detection and the act of fraud.

2. Hollinger, R. C., & Clark, J. P. (1983). Deterrence and the Employee-Thief. In Theft by Employees. Lexington Books. This seminal academic study on employee theft found that the perceived certainty of detection is a more effective deterrent than the severity of sanctions. The research concluded that employees who perceived a high likelihood of being caught were significantly less likely to engage in theft, establishing a clear inverse correlation.

3. Nagin, D. S. (2013). Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century. Crime and Justice, 42(1), 199–263. https://doi.org/10.1086/670398 Page 201: This comprehensive review of deterrence research affirms the principle, stating, "The evidence in support of the deterrent effect of the certainty of punishment is far more consistent and robust than for the severity of punishment." This principle is a cornerstone of criminology and applies directly to workplace deviance like employee theft. An increased certainty of being caught (detection) deters the act.

1. ACFE Fraud Examiners Manual

2023 Edition

“Occupational Fraud Deterrence

” Section 1.601

pp. 1.6-4 – 1.6-5: “Increasing the perceived certainty of detection is one of the most effective deterrents; employees who believe they will be caught are significantly less likely to commit fraud.”

2. Hollinger

R. C.

& Clark

J. P. (1983). “Deterrence in the Workplace: Perceived Certainty

Perceived Severity

and Employee Theft.” Social Forces

62(2)

398-418. https://doi.org/10.2307/2578232 (see pp. 410-412: Negative correlation reported between perceived certainty of detection and self-reported theft across retail

manufacturing

and service sectors).

3. Langton

L. (University of Maryland). Criminology & Criminal Justice course notes

“Deterrence Theory” (CCJS 450

Fall 2022)

Lecture 5

slides 12-14: Summarizes empirical studies showing that “higher perceived certainty of punishment decreases the likelihood of offending.”