Which earned value management formula can help you determine how likely it is that you'll complete the program based on the amount of cash left in the program budget?

The To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI) is the specific Earned Value Management (EVM) metric used to determine the future cost efficiency required to complete the remaining work within a specific budget. It is calculated as the ratio of the work remaining (Budget at Completion - Earned Value) to the funds remaining (Budget at Completion - Actual Cost). This index directly answers how likely it is that the program will complete on budget by showing the level of performance that must be maintained. A TCPI greater than 1.0 indicates that future performance must be more efficient than originally planned.

A. Estimate at completion (EAC) is a forecast of the total program cost, not a measure of the performance efficiency needed to meet the budget.
B. Variance at completion (VAC) is a forecast of the amount of budget deficit or surplus at the end, not the required performance level.
D. Estimate to complete (ETC) is a forecast of the cost for the remaining work, not the efficiency required to execute that work.

1. Project Management Institute. (2017). The Standard for Program Management (4th ed.). Section 5.5.3, Program Financial Framework, p. 78. "The to-complete performance index (TCPI) is a comparative EVM metric that is used to determine the feasibility of achieving the cost objective of a program component."

2. Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (6th ed.). Section 7.4.2.2, Data Analysis, p. 265. "The to-complete performance index (TCPI) is a measure of the cost performance that is required to be achieved with the remaining resources in order to meet a specified management goal, expressed as the ratio of the cost to finish the outstanding work to the remaining budget."

3. Project Management Institute. (2011). Practice Standard for Earned Value Management (2nd ed.). Section 4.6, To-Complete Performance Index (TCPI), p. 23. "The TCPI is the calculated cost performance index that is achieved on the remaining work to meet a specified management goal, such as the BAC or the EAC."