A product owner asks a newly formed scrum team how many story points will be completed in a sprint. What should the scrum master do?

Velocity is an empirical measure that can only be learned by observing how much work a specific team actually completes in several real Sprints. A brand-new Scrum team therefore needs to run a few Sprints, measure completed story points, and then use the resulting average as its forecast for future Sprints. Any attempt to predetermine velocity without data contradicts the empirical-process control that underpins Scrum.

A. Borrowing another project’s velocity ignores the principle that each team’s capacity is unique.
B. Averaging members’ guesses substitutes speculation for empirical measurement.
C. Velocity supplied by a sponsor is external, not evidence-based, and risks over-commitment.

1. PMI

“Agile Practice Guide”

2017

§5.3.1 Velocity

p.58.

2. Scrum Guide 2020

“Sprint Planning—Forecasting Work”

p.10; empirical basis for forecasting.

3. MIT OpenCourseWare

15.S12 “Agile Methods”

Lecture 4 slides

“Velocity emerges after several iterations”

slide 12.