The project manager performed' a variance analysis on the project during the execution phase. The variances were shown as increasing What does this result imply?

Variance analysis compares the planned project performance baseline against actual performance. An "increasing" variance signifies a growing deviation from this baseline over time. This trend indicates that the project's performance is becoming less predictable and is not under control. A decrease in predictability directly corresponds to an increase in uncertainty about the project's future outcomes. This heightened uncertainty elevates the overall project risk, as the likelihood of failing to meet one or more project objectives (e.g., cost, schedule, scope) increases.

B. The project schedule is lagging behind. This is a possible cause for variance, but the term "variances" is general and could also refer to cost, scope, or quality, not just schedule.
C. There is no potential for future deviation. This is the opposite of what the data implies. An increasing variance trend suggests a high probability of continued or worsening deviation.
D. The project is over budget. This is a specific type of variance (cost). The problem could be schedule-related or stem from other project constraints. ---

1. Project Management Institute. (2019). The Standard for Risk Management in Portfolios, Programs, and Projects. Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.

Section 7.3.3, Work Performance Information: This section explains that performance information, which includes variance analysis results (e.g., CV, SV), is a key input to the Monitor Risk process. It states, "Analysis of this information may indicate the effectiveness of the overall risk process... and whether the level of overall project risk has changed." An increasing variance is a clear trend indicating that the level of overall project risk has changed, typically by increasing.

2. Project Management Institute. (2017). A Guide to the Project Management Body of Knowledge (PMBOK® Guide) (6th ed.). Newtown Square, PA: Project Management Institute.

Section 4.5.2.2, Variance Analysis: This section describes variance analysis as a tool to review differences between planned and actual performance. The output of this analysis, particularly trends showing increasing deviation, is used to determine if corrective or preventive action is needed, which is a core component of managing risk. A growing variance is a trigger for risk reassessment.

3. De Meyer, A., Loch, C. H., & Pich, M. T. (2002). Managing project uncertainty: from variation to chaos. MIT Sloan Management Review, 43(2), 60–67.

Page 61: The article explicitly links performance variation (variance) to project uncertainty. It states, "As variation and uncertainty increase, managers must adapt their project management style... Unmanaged, it can escalate and push a project into chaos." This directly supports the conclusion that increasing variance implies increasing uncertainty and, by extension, risk.